Rick Warren: A purpose driven Homophobe?

As many of you know theres been a much anticipated rift between Obama and a great deal of progressive voters. The cause? Obama choosing Rick Warren to give the invocation at the inauguration. Where do I stand on the matter?

Well, as usual: somewhere in the middle.

The Gay community, and therefore the progressive community at large (as well as anyone who isn't a homophobic bigot) has cause to be concerned about folks like Rick Warren getting any political capital. He has, among other things, likened Homosexuality to Adultery and Polygamy, Opposed Gay Marriage on the grounds that it violates the free speech of Gay Marriage opponents (I don't find ANY argument against Gay marriage particularly logical or credible but this is certainly one of the weaker critiques. Its a bit like saying "Man these anti-discrimination laws violate my right to say racist things!!!!!") and is against Gay adoption. These positions are all unacceptable. People will often point to his work as an AIDS activist as some evidence of him being more progressive than other evangelical leaders, but his work on that issue has been mostly in Africa where HIV/AIDS is a predominantly heterosexual disease.

He has recently responded to some of these concerns visiting a gay thrift store and removing some language prohibiting gay people from attaining membership at Saddleback (four words: worst church name ever) from their website. I think its important to note that Warren is a fairly controversial figure in the evangelical community. Conservative evangelicals resent Warren addressing issues like Climate Change and find Warren's "Purpose Driven Life" book/movement a bit too close to pop-psychology for comfort. Liberal evangelicals (note: not an oxymoron) found Warren's purpose driven life materials a bit too commercial and yearn for an open and affirming (read: not homophobic) evangelical movement. If Obama thinks that Warren will be some gateway to the evangelical community he is sadly mistaken. Evangelicals are notorious for being strict ideologues, I've seen these people on the verge of screaming about issues like infant baptism and the ordination of female elders......A pro-choice politician? Puh-lease

What should keep lefties from hyperventilating? Pop quiz: Name the last pastor that gave the invocation at an inauguration.........still waiting........Okay, times up. I'm betting that you're probably like most people I've asked this question of and have reached the logical conclusion that this isn't even a very important role in the inauguration ceremony, let alone one of much historical significance.

Unfortunately due to the economy Gay rights activists will have a hard time making marriage equality seem like a dire struggle (although it is). Additionally Obama and most other prominent Democrats are against Gay marriage, although I do think we may see some progress on domestic partnership issues (I know, hardly a panacea).

Meanwhile Obama has appointed one hell of a secretary of Labor.

Its difficult to judge how progressive (or successful) president Obama will be over the next four years. Its important that we lefties stay vigilant, but retain some perspective and not let disagreements get in the way of our shared values.

Important weather update from Portland

Top 10 Favorite Bands/Artists

Always wanted to do this:

Top 10 Favorite Bands/Artists

1. Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band
2. Pearl Jam
3. Ted Leo
4. Ryan Adams
5. Steve Earle
6. Billy Bragg
7. The Hold Steady
8. Glen Hansard projects (The Frames, The Swell Season etc.)
9. Neil Young
10. Damien Rice

By the way, I'm prepping a lengthy post on Rick Warren that will drop either tonight or tomorrow night.

Countdown

Holiday 2008 mix notes will be posted before 11:59 PM on Friday, December 19th. Sorry for the delay but the snow up here has made things crazy.

Coming Soon!

Just pressed the 2008 Holiday Mix today. I will finish the artwork tomorrow and then start passing this baby out. After that I'll work on some notes that will be up here. This blog will then act as an archive for all of my mix related projects (I may start doing a summer mix).

My Goal this Christmas

http://www.kgw.com/news-local/stories/kgw_121108_business_powells_staff_scale_back.52d7364a.html

Two words: Buy Local

More than any other time of year Christmas is when I go retail crazy. Not only do I buy gifts but inevitably I get a good share of Christmas cash as well. Usually I go for either price or convenience when buying gifts - taking a trip to best buy, fred meyer or even *shudder* the mall. The mall of all places! Not this year my friends!

I think between Music Millennium and Everyday Music, Powell's Books, the Vegan Mini Mall and various neighborhood shops I should be golden. Will it cost more? Maybe, but not much. In fact the really awesome thing will be for those of us music and book fans that will get to scoop up low price used goods with our Christmas cash. This recession will be hard on small and local businesses. If you value the character of this city then put your Christmas money where your mouth is and BUY LOCAL!!!!

Favorite Music of 2008

The time is here. 2008 has been another great year for music, lots of releases from established artists looking for a return to form as well as some new bands trying to reach that next level. Here's what I've been digging in list form:

FAVORITE ALBUMS OF 2008

Honorable Mentions:

1. Marnie Stern: This Is It and I Am It and You Are It and So Is That and He Is It and She Is It and It Is It and That Is That


I just discovered this record listening to Henry Rollins radio show. Simply put: this album is CRAZY. I'd venture a guess that if you pick this one up it'll definitely be one of the most avant garde things you've heard all year. Marnie certainly brings a creative voice to modern music and her guitar playing is incredible. Highly recommended.

2. Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds: Dig!!! Lazarus Dig!!!


Nick and the Bad Seeds continue to rock our collective worlds. This record was just a few more "great" songs away from getting into my top ten, but was still worthwhile. As usual Nick's lyrics are the stand out, especially on "more news from nowhere" (featured above).

3. REM: Accelerate



I was pretty disappointed by this release. It felt to me like REM was trying a bit too hard to recapture the exuberance of their formative years. Still, even just a couple great REM songs is definitely worth your time.

4. Ryan Adams: Cardinology



This was a bit too much like 2007's Easy Tiger....only not as good.

5. Stephen Malkmus and the Jicks: Real Emotional Trash



This record was great, but having a 10 minute song so early in really killed the flow for me. Nice to hear Janet from Sleater-Kinney still making great music after their hiatus.

Okay, now its for keeps.


#10 She & Him: Volume 1



This record has been all over top 10 lists for good reason as its probably the best pure "pop" record of the decade. These songs, along with Zooey Deschanel's voice feel timeless and the melodies remind me of anything from Brian Wilson to The Ronettes.

#9 Elvis Costello and The Imposters: Momofuku



Classic Costello here. Standouts are "American Gangster Time", "Pardon me Madam, my name is Eve" and "Turpentine"

#8 Martha Wainwright: I know you're married....but I've got feelings too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuX5Fwiaj70 (stupid UMG disabling embed)

Martha is one of my favorite female vocalists. I've seen her twice as an opener, one for the swell season and once for stephen malkmus. Some might call her wailing on songs like "Hearts Club Band" a bit histrionic, I call it transcendent.

#7 Billy Bragg: Mr Love and Justice



Its rare when an artist actually releases one of their best records roughly two decades after their first but Billy managed to pull it off. The usual quirky mix of songs about love and politics.

#6 Jenny Lewis: Acid Tongue



Classic examples of great songwriting are all over this record, I need to check out more stuff that Jenny Lewis has done.

#5 Spiritualized: Songs in A and E



"Soul on Fire" = Song of the year. Period.

#4 Drive-by Truckers: Brighter than Creation's Dark.



Hard to find a more consistent double record released this decade. This band manages to release an absolute gem despite membership changes. Patterson Hood turns out great songs like "The Righteous Path" and "You and your crystal meth", Mike Cooley steals the show with deep character sketches like "Bob" and "Lisa's Birthday" and Shonna Tucker gets all sultry with cuts like "Houston" and "Purgatory Line". Essential listening here.

#3 The Hold Steady: Stay Positive



Falling short of their last record "Boys and Girls in America" The Hold Steady still manage to fuse Springsteenian anthems with Hardcore sensibility to make an excellent record.

#2 The Helio Sequence: Keep Your Eyes Ahead



The best band to ever come out of Beaverton, OR released their latest record early on this year, but its managed to hold a spot on my ipod for some time now (best hard on vinyl though, obviously). Beatleesque melodies meet blistering drums in a cacophonous reaffirmation of the power of rock and roll.

#1 Lisa Hannigan: Sea Sew



Okay, so this Irish record will technically be released in the US in 2009 - but I didn't want Bruce keeping Lisa from the number one spot when this record is sooooo good. After being fired by Damien Rice Lisa manages to release a record thats better than anything hes done in the studio (live though, Damien is hard to surpass, the again I've never seen a full Lisa Hannigan show.) Every song on this record is perfect. Great arrangements, lyrics, performances (especially vocally) tones and textures etc. My favorite female artist of all time.

OTHER STUFF:

Discoveries

One artist I've always wanted to check out and finally did and one I just found out about:

Tom Waits:



Where have you been all my life Tom? Hoping to get the full discography with Christmas money. Still trying to wrap my ahead around some of his releases. Definitely in that top 5 living songwriters (with Springsteen, Dylan, Young and Wilson IMO).

CR Avery:



BEST. OPENER. EVER. More on that later. I'm hoping he'll come to Portland so I can take a big posse to be mindblown by his sheer talent.

Drive-By Truckers:

Aforementioned. Blew away by them at the Crystal. Records like Decoration Day will surely be in my top 50.

TOP FIVE SHOWS OF 2008:

#5 Ryan Adams – Elsinore Theatre – Salem, OR 1/25

First electric show with Ryan and the Cards. "I see monsters" was a KILLER closer. The Elsinore theater was immaculate and had tons of character. I'd love to see another show there.

#4 Billy Bragg w/ CR Avery - Pacific Northwest College of Art - Portland, OR 6/07

Again, BEST. OPENER. EVER. Billy is a can't miss live artist seamlessly weaving fantastic songs with great anecdotes. "The Spacerace is Over" was incredibly moving.

#3 The Hold Steady w/ Drive by Truckers - Crystal Ballroom - Portland, OR 11/22

It took a week to recuperate after rocking that hard. That should give you some idea of how badass that show was.

#2 Pearl Jam w/ Ted Leo - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY 6/24

In NYC on my honeymoon. Ted Leo opening. Madison Square Garden. Pearl Jam. Do the math. First night beats out second night due to the setlist.

#1 Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band - Rose Garden Arena - Portland, OR 3/28

I managed to get in the pit and stand about 10 rows away from my idol. This was a real emotional night for me, one I'll never forget. My first E-street band show. Hopefully not the last.


Well, thats it for music in 2008. What did you listen to?

Film Review: Irreversible

I'm not giving this a star rating because it was just so jarring I'm not sure what my opinion of it actually is. For those uninitiated Irreversible is a film by french director Gaspar Noe that runs backwards and depicts two incredibly brutal acts of violence in two scenes, the most brutal filmed in a single take nearly ten minutes in length. The performances are superb the camera work inventive and the score contains a low frequency noise designed to make viewers nauseous. I'd recommend this to anyone with an open mind, I'd love to hear anyones take on this interesting piece of work.

Film Reviews

Just letting you folks know that I may have a big personal announcement to break on here in a few weeks. Pretty big stuff. I don't usually do this kind of thing on the blog, but I may be able to get a good post out of it, so I'm going forward with it.

Film Reviews

Body of War - This documentary was about Iraq war veteran Thomas Young. It was really well done and highly recommended, although I was surprised at how highly Sen. Robert Byrd (WV) seems to be regarded by the filmmakers. Former Klan member Robert Byrd. Just sayin'.

***1/2 out of *****

Requiem for a Dream - I'll be cycling through the three films made by Darren Aronofsky and several films starring Mickey Rourke in preparation for "The Wrestler" due out in December (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wrestler_(2008_film)). I've already seen Pi, but will screen it again, and hopefully I'll be able to catch The Fountain as well, despite its mixed reputation. Simply put this film wasn't perfect, but was excellent in every regard. Aronofsky is really creative with his use of editing and the performances were stellar. Out of every film I've seen so far this year, this is the one I'd recommend to people the most.

****3/4 out of *****

Two Words: Woah. Dude.

http://io9.com/5086630/new-watchmen-trailer-is-full-of-organ-playing-death-dealing-craziness

Man, each new peek at this thing makes me more and more excited to see it.

Keeping in touch

I've recently had conversations with several friends of mine that all reach the same conclusion: we all have no friends. Or at least it doesn't FEEL like it. Sure, I have friends, even one that I see fairly often, but its often in short, rushed encounters that don't really do much but remind me that I wish I saw my friends more often. As a strong extrovert I really enjoy 95% of people so its unusual that I really can only call around 10 people legitimate "friends" of mine. Acquaintances are lovely, but need not apply here. I have 51 "friends" on facebook though. Thinking about this 10 I've only seen three of them the past month, 5-7 this calendar year, and the rest before this calendar year. There are geographic boundaries to be sure, but the biggest boundaries are artificial.

The really unfortunate thing about this in my mind, aside from the loss of feeling loved by ones friends, is the missed opportunities for learning. I've learned so much from my friends, not necessarily things that are quantifiable (although in many cases I have learned a great deal) but things about myself, about people - about life. Its all very lamentable. Then again, I have certainly been in that mood lately.....a....lamentatious one? lamentative? This is the exact kind of thing a friend could help out with.

He did it!

That was a real nail-biter. Hard to believe the man from Myrtle Creek just defeated the last Republican senator on the west coast.

The agony and the ectasy

Well its still hard for me to believe what happened last night. Its important to note that this is still a centrist country (not center-right, forget the pundits) and this year the democrats managed to turn out more of their folks while the republicans net less of theirs.

For me this election is the exclamation point on the end of a very emotional year. Getting married, losing my Grandfather (my enthusiasm last night was severely dampened by his absence, it was so tough not being able to call him when Obama was projected as the winner) and now seeing most of my hopes for the nation come true, electorally speaking that is.

There were some disappointments though. The Senate race in MN was a real barn-burner, Coleman is barely ahead and the closeness will trigger a recount that won't matriculate until mid November, possibly January. There still isn't a projected winner of the Oregon senate race meaning that many folks who voted for Obama also voted for known douchebag Gordon Smith or didn't fill out the rest of their ballots. Talk about depressing. Right now smith is a head but Multnomah and Lane county have enough vote outstanding that many analysts are predicting a Merkley win of between 10,000-30,000 votes. We're also awaiting the results of the anti-union Measure 64 for the same reason. Neither of these contests should have been this close.

Most disappointing of all was the success of Prop 8 in California. If this measure had failed it would have been a huge stride in favor of marriage equality. I'm pretty disheartened that two of the groups that contributed to its success were African Americans (according to exit polls) and the Mormon church (they sunk a TON of money into this race). The fact that on the same night that African Americans had a milestone in their struggle for civil rights they contributed to the denial of marriage equality for the gay community is nothing short of tragic. It wasn't long ago that the Mormon community felt the profound sting of persecution as well, they were literally chased westward to Utah because of their beliefs not being accepted by society at the time. Our family is friends with many LGBT folks, many of them in relationships that lasted longer and were stronger than my parents marriage. These folks have the kind of relationships that I hope to have with my wife and the fact that they are continually told by society that they are inadequate and unaccepted is simply, fucked up, no other term gets the job done.

Checking in

Last night was amazing, and I will write about the results of this election later today. I am waiting on some results but it looks like a mixed evening for those of us who are progressive and follow more than just the top of the ticket. I'll leave you folks with this until I'm ready:

Here we go!

Alright folks, this is it. Hard to believe the day is finally here. Its time to find out if what we all think is going to happen actually comes to pass.

I'd ignore all the folks telling you things like "Oh, if obama wins Virginia hes likely to win all of the tossup states" and the like. I've said it before and I'll say it again: EACH STATE IS DIFFERENT. This thing ain't over until one man gets 270 electoral votes and thats all I've got to say about that.

14 Political Songs #14

Bruce Springsteen - Livin' in the Future



A letter come blowin' in on an ill wind
Somethin' 'bout me and you
Never seein' one another again
Yeah, well I knew it'd come
Still I was struck deaf and dumb
Like when we kissed, that taste of blood on your tongue

Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet

Woke up Election Day, skies gunpowder and shades of gray
Beneath a dirty sun, I whistled my time away
Then just about sundown
You come walkin' through town
Your boot heels clickin'
Like the barrel of a pistol spinnin' 'round

Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet

The earth it gave away, the sea rose toward the sun
I opened up my heart to you it got all damaged and undone
My ship Liberty sailed away on a bloody red horizon
The groundskeeper opened the gates and let the wild dogs run

I'm rollin' through town, a lost cowboy at sundown
Got my monkey on a leash, got my ear tuned to the ground
My faith's been torn asunder, tell me is that rollin' thunder
Or just the sinkin' sound of somethin' righteous goin' under?

Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
None of this has happened yet
None of this has happened yet
None of this has happened yet
None of this has happened yet

Just around the corner

So here we are, one day separating us from what will be the most significant political event of this decade. Things are looking good, but in all seriousness, McCain could still pull this out. There are a lot of undecideds and Obama is just at 50% in several state polls - which could be in the margin of error and could lead to him losing in states like FL, OH and the like. That being said, the Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO firewall looks pretty damn good, and NV and VA are still looking good as backups. McCain's push for PA doesn't look successful at this point, but again, there may be some kind of racial effect here that doesn't exist in other states so its hard to tell. I'd prefer it if the networks were able to project a winner in FL soon, because then it doesn't matter what happens in PA.

Anyway, since we have a day left, here are my predictions:

National

1. Barack Obama will be president winning between 270-300 Electoral Votes

2. The Democrats will NOT win 60 seats in the Senate. I'm expecting races in MS, KY and GA to go for the GOP and will additionally predict Norm Coleman victorious in MN over Al Franken.

3. The Abortion ban in South Dakota will pass.

4. Prop 8 (Gay Marriage Ban) in California will fail.

Local Stuff

1. Dino Rossi will be a two-time loser in Washington State.

2. Jeff Merkley will do the unthinkable and finally beat the last Republican senator on the west coast.

3. One of Sizemore's shitty measures will pass.

4. Measure 65 will pass.

5. Kate Brown will be Secretary of State winning by a very small margin.

Well thats all for today. I'll post briefly tomorrow.

Favorite Political Songs #12 and 13

#12 Billy Bragg "Waiting for the Great Leap Forward"



#13 Steve Earle "Jerusalem"



Note the hopeful tone of these two today!!!!

14 Favorite Political Tunes #11

public enemy - by the time i get to arizona

14 Favorite Political Tunes #10

pearl jam do the evolution

lol

Uncertainty and polls

It was Christmas of 2006. My family was gathered in my Aunt’s family room after the usual Christmas dinner. The subject of conversation turned to politics which as usual, got me all excited. Being a partisan Democrat I was still elated by the results of the 2006 Congressional elections. After talking about the Democratic Takeover a friend of the family asked “So are you excited about seeing Hilary and Rudy Giuliani go at each other in 2008?” I hesitated and then expressed some reservations about Giuliani’s chances in a Republican Primary; his stances on social issues, a possible inability to resonate culturally with the republican base and his relatively small experience campaigning on a national stage were all things I cited. My Uncle seemed surprised by my analysis and mentioned that the polls he had read seemed to indicate that a Rudy/Hilary match up was likely, if not inevitable. Although my instincts seem rather prescient in hindsight its easy to see why my Uncle, like many others, had those expectations.

In an age where Americans are getting the information they want easier, quicker and more conveniently than ever the result of a Presidential election certainly goes against the grain. Its hard to even remember when this presidential campaign started, Democratic front-runner Hilary Clinton officially announced her bid on January 22nd 2007 (http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/20/clinton.announcement/index.html), McCain on the March 1st edition of the David Letterman show (http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/28/mccain.running/index.html), and Barck Obama on February 10th, 2007 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6349081.stm). The speculation, of course, started much earlier. I should mention that in the last national Newsweek Poll released on October 24th 2008 already contains some data on the 2012 Republican Primary with Mitt Romney leading the pack with 35% of registered Republicans, Mike Huckabee with 26% and Sarah Palin with 10% (http://www.newsweek.com/id/165570). Are we now destined for an Obama/Romney matchup in 2012?
Hardly. First of all, Obama hasn’t been elected to his first term yet. Secondly, the people conducting this poll for Newsweek presented respondents with a series of options. We don’t know if the candidates who were presented as options will even be running, yet alone if they’ll be politically viable. Furthermore, figures can suddenly appear on the national stage; just ask Barack Obama. Its easy to imagine someone like David Petraus having a significant effect on this poll were he listed as an option. And what about the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire? Someone like Tim Pawlenty may be able to connect with Iowa caucus goers more efficiently than Mitt Romney, much like Mike Huckabee connected with Iowa Republicans last January. Barack Obama certainly looked like the frontrunner of the Democratic contest after winning the Iowa caucus.

I think its important to note that although polls can be useful in terms of identifying trends, they’re hardly a flawless predictor of future events. That being said, I still find myself spending hours of my personal time reading polls. There is a dizzying array of polls on this election. I follow eight national tracking polls, one tracking poll that covers Pennsylvania and several state polls. I check three websites daily that assemble, weight and average statewide and national polls. I read crosstabs, compare the newest polls with other polls, check sample sizes, party identification, the record of the group conducting the poll and the pollsters own analysis of their work. I’ve began to wonder though, as interesting as the daily “horse race” is - are the polls I’m reading really giving me a greater ability to predict the results of this election? In an effort to quell that concern, I looked back at the accuracy of polls on past elections and found that process an insightful one.

One historical trend I found is of great relevance to the 2008 election. Although Gallup’s final pre-election polls aren’t always accurate at predicting the popular vote totals there have only been three occasions since 1980 where whoever was ahead in the pre-election poll three weeks prior to the election did not win the popular vote. The first of those occasions occurred in 1980 when Carter led Reagan by three points the third week of October. Reagan ended up winning the popular vote in that election by nearly 10 points. Its important to note though that the only presidential debate in 1980 occurred on October 28th and was largely regarded as a turning point in that campaign. The other incidents happened in 2000 and 2004 where Gallup had both sets of candidates tied in mid-October, Gore won the popular vote by .5% and Bush by 2.4% respectively. I should mention that Barack Obama was head by 7 in a Gallup poll taken three week prior to this election. In every election aside from 1980 with a clear frontrunner three weeks prior to the election (84, 88, 92, 96) Gallup accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote. In an issue of Public Opinion Quarterly Dr. Michael W. Traugott concluded that “In the end, the final estimates of the pre-election polls, the bread and butter of the polling industry, were very good at suggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner. In historical perspective, the overall performance was above average for the period since 1956.” (http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/69/5/642)

One way analysts try to predict the results of a presidential election is by assembling polls of individual states in an effort to determine a likely winner of the electoral college. The website http://www.electoral-vote.com correctly predicted the winner of the Electoral College on their last prediction on November 3rd. In 2004 Zogby International infamously predicted that John Kerry would win the Electoral College by over 300 electoral votes (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1297588/posts). In 2000 ABC News, The Associated Press, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, The Orvetti Report, President Elect, the President Elect computer, Portrait of America, and the Washington Times all correctly predicted the winner of the Electoral College although none of these organizations predicted the actual electoral vote total. The website FiveThirtyEight.com has become popular in this election cycle partly due to their system of analysis out performing other analyst’s predictions of several contests in the 2008 Democratic Primary. The site is run by Nate Silver who compiles polling data using methodology similar to baseball sabermetrics. Silver currently predicts Barck Obama to win the Electoral College with over 300 votes.

The Historic nature of Barack Obama’s candidacy has some analysts wondering if Barack Obama might underperform expectations set by polls due to racial motivations of voters who are afraid to disclose their true preference. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “Bradley Effect” named after California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley who underperformed pre-election polls in 1982. Interestingly enough Bradley’s performance may have had less to do with race and more to do with polls of the contest consistently being within the margin of error and a larger push for elderly Californians to vote absentee leading Republican leaning voters to be under-sampled in polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html). A new analysis done by Harvard Post-Doctoral Fellow Daniel J. Hopkins using new data from 133 gubernatorial and Senate elections from 1989 to 2006 found that “before 1996, the median gap (underperformance) for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points.” Hopkins also argued that part of the “Bradley” or “Wilder” effect (referring to Virginian Douglas Wilder the first African American governor in America) may be related to individual candidates status’ as a front runner which may also lead to favorable polling inaccuracies. After doing a survey of the results 31 contests from the 2008 Democratic Primary FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver concluded that Barack Obama overperformed expectations set by polls in 19 States including states with higher percentages of white voters like Iowa, Wisconsin and Oregon (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html). A Presidential Election is certainly different than a Democratic Presidential Primary though, so its hard to tell what effect racially motivated voters will have on the final results.

Another difficulty in presidential polling is determining which voters will actually show up to the polls. Gallup has used whats called a “Likely Voter Model” with mixed results, most infamously in 2000 where on October 24th Gallup had Gore ahead of Bush by 1 point and three days later they had Bush ahead by 13 points. This cycle Gallup has a “Traditional Likely Voter Model” meant to mirror the 2004 electorate and an “Expanded Likely Voter Model” that estimates higher turnout by young Americans and minorities. Under this “Traditional” model a voter can be registered and say they’re determined to vote and still be excluded from the model if they didn’t vote in 2004. There has also been some recent concern that pollsters are undersampling young Democratic leaning voters because of a prevalence of cell phone only households among those under 30. Pollster Ann Selzer estimates that as many as 50% of voters under 30 rely on cell phone service (Selzer & Co).
Polling has been especially erratic this election cycle, a current survey of national polls has Obama’s margin of victory as low as 3 points (Rasmussen Reports) and as high as 14 points (Pew Research Center). There is a lot of anecdotal evidence to add to all of this uncertainty. On August 5th the New York Times reported that reported that “since 2005, Democrats have gained some 214,000 voters in the 26 states with available registration data while Republican registration has dropped by more than 1.4 million”. More than 540,000 votes have already been cast in Georgia and black voters have made up a disproportionately high percentage of those votes, accounting for 37 percent of Georgia's early votes when 29 percent of the state's 5.6 million registered voters are African American (Associated Press), this may be some indication of unprecedented turnout among African Americans. Oregon’s Vote By Mail system provides an interesting study for voter turnout. The amount of ballots cast prior to October 29th 2008 represent a 19% decline in turnout compared to the ballots cast before October 29th 2004. Interestingly enough is to compare the difference between 2008 and 2004 in specific counties. In traditionally Democratic counties like Lane, Benton and Multnomah County the decline in turnout is between 12 and 16%. In Republican leaning counties like Klamath, Douglas and Linn County the decline in turnout varies from 16% to a staggering 41.5% (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/). This will certainly have some impact on races in Oregon, but again, if this trend is some indicator of a national trend in GOP enthusiasm and manifests itself in other states it could lead to some very interesting results on November 4th. The reason why I bring up all this anecdotal evidence is to illustrate the point that there are important trends that may not manifest themselves in polling. If certain groups are undersampled or oversampled then pollsters “Likely Voter Models” will be useless.

That being said I do feel that following polls, in addition to being a fun hobby, is a valuable practice. This is especially true when compared to the alternative of not following polls. Knowing that a certain candidate is ahead or behind can provide a meaningful context in which to view important events in a presidential campaign. If a candidate does something drastic like running a negative ad or naming an unknown Governor of Alaska as his Vice Presidential Candidate knowing that they’re behind in the polls may give you some insight into their decision making process. If you can’t decide between making a donation to a local political campaign or a national one it might be helpful to know candidates viability. Polls are great at providing some foresight as to who will decide the future of our communities and ultimately our country. By many traditional metrics it looks likely that Barack Obama will be the first African American president of the United States but things are far from certain. Unprecedented events occur on a regular basis and that’s what keeps me interested in politics (and checking dozens of polls everyday).

That informercial

Heres my initial thoughts:

1. Could that have been anymore folksy?

2. Generationaly this will fall flat among Millenial and Gen X voters, Several important groups though: low information voters, white boomer women, seniors I think this may really resonate.

3. We really won't know how successful this was until Friday or Saturday at the earliest in terms of the trackers. I'm not sure when the Neilson ratings will be out, but judging by the demos they'll release we'll be able to get a good picture of who exactly saw this thing.

Big Oregon Poll News

From the trib:

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Oct 28, 2008, Updated 4.5 hours ago

Democratic state Sens. Kate Brown and Ben Westlund are in solid position to become Oregon’s next secretary of state and state treasurer, according to a new poll for the Portland Tribune and Fox 12.

Brown, a Portland Democrat, leads Springfield Republican Rick Dancer, a former television journalist, 38 percent to 32 percent in the secretary of state’s race, according to a new poll by Portland polling firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. Portland software engineer Seth Woolley, running on the Pacific Green Party ticket, had 4 percent in the poll, while 25 percent were undecided.

Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. polled 500 registered voters around the state from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Six weeks earlier, a Tribune/Fox 12 poll by the same firm found Brown led Dancer 33 percent to 25 percent, with 38 percent undecided.

Westlund, a Bend-area Democrat, leads Lake Oswego Republican Allen Alley by 39 percent to 28 percent in the treasurer’s race, the new poll showed. Constitution Party candidate Michael Marsh, a McDonald’s maintenance worker from Salem, is favored by 3 percent of voters, while 29 percent remain undecided, according to the poll.

A Tribune/News 12 poll by the same firm six weeks ago found Westlund led Alley 31 percent to 20 percent, with 45 percent undecided.

There still are a high number of undecided voters, giving Dancer and Alley a shot at winning, said Tim Hibbitts, who conducted the poll for Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. But neither has narrowed the gap significantly since the last survey six weeks ago, and many Oregonians have already cast their ballots.

“Nobody’s really gained. What’s happened is the undecideds have dropped,” Hibbitts said.

If that pattern continues, “it benefits the Democrats,” he said. “It would be an upset for either Republican to win.”
New voters could swamp GOP

Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and Oregon Treasurer Randall Edwards are stepping down after serving two terms. Neither is allowed to run again because of term limits. Bradbury is pondering a run for governor in 2010, while Edwards is exploring his career options.

Kate Brown, who has served in the Legislature since 1991, was Senate majority leader until she relinquished that position last year to run for secretary of state. A lawyer by training, she has worked in family law.

This is Dancer’s first run for elective office after a long television news career in Eugene.

Dancer entered the race late, while Brown has been campaigning since the 2007 legislative session ended. She has raised $1.6 million since August 2007, much of it spent on a competitive primary against fellow state Senators Rick Metsger and Vicki Walker. Dancer has raised $370,521.

Westlund gained statewide name recognition in 2006, when he switched from the Republican Party to run for governor as an independent. He later pulled out of the race and switched to the Democratic Party.

Westlund made a fortune in the bull-breeding business, and also co-owned a kitty litter manufacturing company. He works as a health care consultant.

Alley left his post as Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s deputy chief of staff to enter the race. He is a former venture capitalist, and former executive at two local technology companies. He was president of Pixelworks Inc. and vice president of InFocus Corp.

Alley is relatively new to politics but his business credentials helped land several newspaper endorsements. Alley appeared to be picking up momentum with the endorsements, which can prove helpful in a race where voters know little about the candidates or the office.

But Alley entered the race late, after initially announcing he wouldn’t run. Westlund has been actively campaigning since the 2007 legislative session ended, and has raised $754,977. Alley started collecting money in March of this year, and has raised $463,993.

The souring economy and President George W. Bush’s lackluster support among voters makes Hibbitts and most other political analysts doubtful of any Republican gains in Oregon this year. The one exception is Westlund’s state Senate seat. He initially won election as a Republican, not a Democrat, so the GOP has a good shot at reclaiming the seat.

Oregon Democrats’ success in enlisting new voters makes it even tougher for Republicans. Oregon Democrats added 158,321 registered voters from January through September, an increase of 20.9 percent. Republicans added only 979 registered voters during that period, an increase of 1.4 percent.

Democrats have a 43.3 percent to 32.5 percent voter-registration advantage over Republicans statewide, as of Sept. 30. At the end of 2007, Democrats led Republicans 38.8 percent to 35.2 percent among registered voters.

stevelaw@portlandtribune.com

14 Favorite Political Tunes #9

#9 Bruce Springsteen - American Skin



41 shots....
and we'll take that ride
'cross this bloody river
to the other side
41 shots... cut through the night
You're kneeling over his body in the vestibule
Praying for his life

Is it a gun, is it a knife
Is it a wallet, this is your life
It ain't no secret
It ain't no secret
No secret my friend
You can get killed just for living
In your American skin

41 shots
Lena gets her son ready for school
She says "on these streets, Charles
You've got to understand the rules
If an officer stops you
Promise you'll always be polite,
that you'll never ever run away
Promise Mama you'll keep your hands in sight"

Is it a gun, is it a knife
Is it a wallet, this is your life
It ain't no secret
It ain't no secret
No secret my friend
You can get killed just for living
In your American skin

Is it a gun, is it a knife
Is it in your heart, is it in your eyes
It ain't no secret

41 shots... and we'll take that ride
'Cross this bloody river
To the other side
41 shots... got my boots caked in this mud
We're baptized in these waters and in each other's blood

Is it a gun, is it a knife
Is it a wallet, this is your life
It ain't no secret
It ain't no secret
No secret my friend
You can get killed just for living
In your American skin

Wow

Seven days to go.

Its hard to believe a moment I've been waiting for, really for four years is finally here. Things look good, but the stakes are too high for me to just sit back and enjoy this. I'll have tons of post-election data to look at starting on Nov 5th, but man, it just won't be the same. The past several months, really since Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus have been euphoric for me. The presidential race, national senate and house races, the OR senate race, the OR secretary of state race, local measures, important measures in other states - its all going to wash over me on Tuesday. I wonder if I'll be able to contain myself, its getting difficult already.

Play us out Bruce:

14 Favorite Political Tunes #8

The Clash - Straight To Hell



If you can play on the fiddle
How's about a British jig and reel?
Speaking King's English in quotation
As railhead towns feel the steel mills rust water froze
In the generation
Clear as winter ice
This is your paradise

There ain't no need for ya
There ain't no need for ya
Go straight to Hell boys
Go straight to Hell boys

Y'wanna join in a chorus
Of the Amerasian blues?
When it's Christmas out in Ho Chi Minh City
Kiddie say papa papa papa papa papa-san take me home
See me got photo photo
Photograph of you and Mamma Mamma Mamma-san
Of you and Mamma Mamma Mamma-san
Lemme tell ya 'bout your blood bamboo kid.
It ain't Coca-Cola it's rice.

Straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Oh Papa-san
Please take me home
Oh Papa-san
Everybody they wanna go home
So Mamma-san said

You wanna play mind-crazed banjo
On the druggy-drag ragtime U.S.A.?
In Parkland International
Hey! Junkiedom U.S.A.
Where procaine proves the purest rock man groove
and rat poison
The volatile Molotov says-

PSSST...
HEY CHICO WE GOT A MESSAGE FOR YA... SI...
VAMOS VAMOS MUCHACHO
FROM ALPHABET CITY ALL THE WAY A TO Z, DEAD, HEAD

Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Straight to Hell

Oh Papa-San
Please take me home
There ain't no need for ya,
There ain't no need for ya

Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys

Can you cough it up loud and strong
The immigrants
They wanna sing all night long
It could be anywhere
Most likely could be any frontier
Any hemisphere
No man's land
Ain't no asylum here
King Solomon he never lived round here

Straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys
Go straight to Hell, boys

Oh Papa-San
Please take me home
Oh Papa-San
Everybody, they wanna go home now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straight_to_Hell_(song)

14 Favorite Political Tunes #7

#7 Waist Deep in the Big Muddy



It was back in nineteen forty-two,
I was a member of a good platoon.
We were on maneuvers in-a Loozianna,
One night by the light of the moon.
The captain told us to ford a river,
That's how it all begun.
We were -- knee deep in the Big Muddy,
But the big fool said to push on.

The Sergeant said, "Sir, are you sure,
This is the best way back to the base?"
"Sergeant, go on! I forded this river
'Bout a mile above this place.
It'll be a little soggy but just keep slogging.
We'll soon be on dry ground."
We were -- waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool said to push on.

The Sergeant said, "Sir, with all this equipment
No man will be able to swim."
"Sergeant, don't be a Nervous Nellie,"
The Captain said to him.
"All we need is a little determination;
Men, follow me, I'll lead on."
We were -- neck deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool said to push on.

All at once, the moon clouded over,
We heard a gurgling cry.
A few seconds later, the captain's helmet
Was all that floated by.
The Sergeant said, "Turn around men!
I'm in charge from now on."
And we just made it out of the Big Muddy
With the captain dead and gone.

We stripped and dived and found his body
Stuck in the old quicksand.
I guess he didn't know that the water was deeper
Than the place he'd once before been.
Another stream had joined the Big Muddy
'Bout a half mile from where we'd gone.
We were lucky to escape from the Big Muddy
When the big fool said to push on.

Well, I'm not going to point any moral;
I'll leave that for yourself
Maybe you're still walking, you're still talking
You'd like to keep your health.
But every time I read the papers
That old feeling comes on;
We're -- waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool says to push on.

Waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool says to push on.
Waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool says to push on.
Waist deep! Neck deep! Soon even a
Tall man'll be over his head, we're
Waist deep in the Big Muddy!
And the big fool says to push on!

Words and music by Pete Seeger (1967)
TRO (c) 1967 Melody Trails, Inc. New York, NY

14 Favorite Political Tunes #5 & #6

Ah yes, already missed a day due to my wife's pink eye. Had to go to an immediate care place, only had to wait about an hour or so. Definitely a heartbreaking place, tons of folks without insurance with kids that had 100+ degree temps. Go America,

14 Favorite political tunes #5: The Day After Tomorrow - Tom Waits



I got your letter today
And I miss you all so much, here
I can't wait to see you all
And I'm counting the days, dear
I still believe that there's gold
At the end of the world
And I'll come home
To Illinois
On the day after tomorrow

It is so hard
And it's cold here
And I'm tired of taking orders
And I miss old Rockford town
Up by the Wisconsin border
But I miss you won't believe
Shoveling snow and raking leaves
And my plane will touch tomorrow
On the day after tomorrow

I close my eyes
Every night
And I dream that I can hold you
They fill us full of lies
Everyone buys
About what it means to be a soldier
I still don't know how I'm supposed to feel
About all the blood that's been spilled
Look out on the street
Get me back home
On the day after tomorrow

You can't deny
The other side
Don't want to die
Any more than we do
What I'm trying to say,
Is don't they pray
To the same God that we do?
Tell me, how does God choose?
Whose prayers does he refuse?
Who turns the wheel?
And who throws the dice
On the day after tomorrow?

Mmmmmmm...
I'm not fighting
For justice
I am not fighting
For freedom
I am fighting
For my life
And another day
In the world here
I just do what I've been told
You're just the gravel on the road
And the one's that are lucky
One's come home
On the day after tomorrow

And the summer
It too will fade
And with it comes the winter's frost, dear
And I know we too are made
Of all the things that we have lost here
I'll be twenty-one today
I've been saving all my pay
And my plane will touch down
On the day after tomorrow
And my plane it will touch down
On the day after tomorrow

#6 Ted Leo - Counting Down The Hours



Innocence it don’t come easy -- in a sense it never will
Accidents mean no one’s guilty, ignorance means someone’s killed
So I asked our Mr. Mellor how one gets to where one’s going
And he points to his survival, and he points me down the road
And I go on and on a-leed-da-lodda-lo
Wondering if I’ve got a soul and
Counting down the hours ‘til it goes
On a dark wet night in April, on a street in Jersey where
I went looking for some writing that I knew would not be there
And a punter from the Pelhams and the police, in the rain,
Were concerned more with the car than with the fact the light had changed
But after listening all morning, as I drove down 95
To a story of detainees who were barely kept alive
I could deal with trying to process with pigeons acting like they’re doves
But not with interference from the power lines above
As I went on and on a-leed-da-lodda-lo
Wondering if I’ve got a soul and
Counting down the hours ‘til it goes
And oh, precautions, yes precautions
But if you’re playing with a gun, well, you could kill someone
And in the dark it’s hard to know a friend
But I’m not angry, I won’t be forever angry
As I’m walking toward tomorrow with a rifle in my hand
And I’m thinking about New England, and I’m missing old Japan
And a mountain in California where a spring runs hot and cold
And if I told you I felt ageless, would you tell me I’m not old?
As I go on and on a-leed-da-lodda-lo
Wondering if we’ve got a soul and
Counting down the hours ‘til it goes

On and on a-leed-da-lodda-lo
Wondering if we’ve got a soul and
Counting down the hours ‘til it goes

Hearing this last night at the roseland was superb - more on that later.

Bold prediction

Next week either McCain will have a better news week or Obama will have a bad news week or some combination of the three. By this time next week we will have a much closer race in the national trackers and state by state polling will be closer as well. I will check this for accuracy next Friday - hold me to that!

14 Favorite Political Tunes #4 "Al Gore" by Monkey Bowl

More about Jeff Merkley

Honestly the following links explain why you should vote for Jeff Merkley better than I could do in a post. Check these out:

http://www.blueoregon.com/2007/07/elections-matte.html

http://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2008/07/jeff-merkley-oregon-grown-netroots.html

This senate race is a simple decision to make. If you care about progressive values, vote for Jeff Merkley. If you approve of 90% of George Bush's policies, vote for Gordon Smith. The main reason why I supported Jeff Merkley in the Senate primary was his support of Payday Loan Reform as speaker of the Oregon House. As this race has continued I like him more and more. I'm confident that in the senate he will vote to protect the middle class, support teachers and students and help the most vulnerable members of our society. Yes, the DSCC's ads have been really negative but so has Gordon Smith's. Look at their plans, look at the record. Vote on whoevers policies you feel reflect your values.

14 Favorite Political Tunes #3

Aint No Reason - Brett Dennen



there ain't no reasons things are this way
its how they've always been and they intend to stay
i can't explain why we live this way
we do it everyday
preachers on the podiums speaking to saints
prophets on the sidewalks begging for change
old ladies laughing from the fire escape, cursing my name
i got a basket full of lemons and they all taste the same
a window and a pigeon with a broken wing
you can spend your whole life working for something
just to have it taken away
people walk around pushing back their desks
wearing pay checks like necklaces and bracelets
talking 'bout nothing, not thinking about their
every little heart beat, every little breath
people walk a tight rope on a razor's edge
carrying their hurt and hatred and weapons
it could be a bomb or a bullet or a pin
or a thought or a word or a sentence.
there ain't no reasons things are this way
its how they've always been and they intend to stay
i don't know why i say the things i say,
but i say them anyway.
but love will come set me free
love will come set me free
i do believe
love will come set me free
i know it will
love will come set me free
yes
prison walls still standing tall
some things never change at all
keep on building prisons,
gonna fill them all.
keep on building bombs
gonna drop them all
working your fingers bare to the bone
breaking your back, make you sell your soul
like a lung is filled with coal, suffocating slow
the wind blows wild and i may move
but politicians lie and i'm not fooled
you don't need no reason or a 3 piece suit
to argue the truth
the air on my skin and the world under my toes
Slavery stitched into the fabric of my clothes
chaos and commotion wherever i go
love, i try to follow
but love will come set me free
love will come set me free
i do believe
love will come set me free
i know it will
love will come set me free
yes
there ain't no reasons things are this way
its how they've always been and they intend to stay
i can't explain why we live this way;
we do it everyday.

See what I mean? pt. 2

The Hill:

(Regarding Pennsylvania)

"WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race." The Obama campaign "wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but said that the e-mail was sent without permission."

Wild stuff.

60

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/10/17/senator_60/index.html


Friday, Oct. 17, 2008 13:02 EDT
The 60th senator

We know Virginia's Mark Warner and the Udall cousins in New Mexico and Colorado look pretty solid. Let's speculate further that Jean Shaheen holds off John Sununu in New Hampshire, Jeff Merkley defeats Gordon Smith in Oregon, Alaska's scandal-plagued Ted Stevens cannot save himself from Mark Begich, and Al Franken can finish his late-campaign run against Minnesota's Norm Coleman. And then, riding Barack Obama's coattails, Kay Hagan upends Liddy Dole in North Carolina.

That would mean eight new Democratic senators, giving Harry Reid 59 seats. (Including that Connecticut guy whose name we dare not speak, of course.) Where might a 60th, filibuster-proof senator come from?

How about Nebraska?

After he beat Republican Mike Johanns, the former Bush agriculture secretary, in a cow-milking contest last August, I blogged about the Democratic candidate, Nebraska Rep. Scott Kleeb. All good fun, but the actual Senate contest itself was one nobody outside the Kleeb campaign had on his or her competitive-race radar.

But now, with just three weeks to go, Johanns finds himself in a bit of a stew. It's not Stevens-level trouble, but the long and short of it is that Johanns apparently traveled in 2006 on taxpayer dollars to do the electoral bidding of Republican House candidates. That's a no-no.

Kyle Michaels of the New Nebraska Network has much more on this developing story:

http://www.newnebraska.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1465

14 Favorite Political Tunes #2

"FUCKED UP RONNIE" DOA



FUCKED UP RONNIE
you're fucked up ronnie you're not gonna last you're gonna die too from a neutron blast

chorus: you're fucked up ronnie you're fucked up ronnie you're fucked up ronnie you're fucked up ronnie.

i'm lyin' in a pool of blood, leave me alone i don't want your help anyway when they march us off to war will you be there to save the day (chorus)

See what I mean?

Rendell wants Obama to come back to Pennsylvania.
Posted: 06:18 PM ET

(CNN) — Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN's Gloria Borger.

Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.

“I don’t want to be selfish,” Rendell said. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”

Obama's support appears to be weakest in the western part of the state, a region Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha recently called 'racist,' and one where he badly lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

Obama last campaigned in Pennsylvania on October 11, a week and a half ago. VP candidate Joe Biden made an appearance with Bill and Hillary Clinton in Scranton on October 12. McCain and running mate Sarah Palin have both made visits to the state this week.

The latest CNN poll of polls in Pennsylvania suggests Obama holds a 13 point lead over McCain there. CNN currently considers the state leaning Obama.

14 Favorite Political Tunes #1

Since we're now two weeks away from the election I'm finding myself listening almost exclusively to politically themed songs. I've decided to post my 14 favorite political songs, one day at a time, starting today. These are in no particular order.

First up.....

Pearl Jam - Undone

A Riot Act era B-side I first heard this song in 2003, the year that I really started becoming politically active and aware. I'm a little less idealistic than I was then, but certain lyrics here really resonate with me "Can't wait for election day" in particular.



Last stop on the west coast line
South of the northern border
One small corner on my mind

Everybody, they know me there
Don't get any second glances
Chances are that they don't care

The world has come undone
Like to change it everyday
Change don't come at once
It's a wave... building before it breaks

Can't wait for election day
Witness the occupation
Corporations rule the day
Well you know the pendulum throws
Farther out to the one side, swinging
Has to sweep back the other way

The world has come undone
Another day and who can wait
Change don't come at once
It's a wave building before it breaks

All this hope and nowhere to go
This is how I used to feel, but no more
The world has come undone
Like a game that few can play
Change don't come from one
It's a wave... building before it breaks

On the subject of Pearl Jam - tomorrow will be the 5 year anniversary of my favorite show of all time. A great moment from that show:

Mega Blog Post week of 10/20

After dealing with a death in the family I have returned to my blogging schedule.

Showdown in Pennsylvania:



According to several sources (example: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/mccain-camp-looking-for-way-to-win-without-colorado/) the McCain camp is seceding three former Bush states that Obama is ahead in (NM, IA and CO) in preparation for a last ditch effort to turn PA blue. Why are they doing this? Well, for Dems, PA is HUGE. Example, Obama could win every state Kerry won + NM + IA + CO AND win either MO, VA NV or NC and he would still lose the election if McCain managed to pick off PA. Obama would need to win OH or FL to offset a PA loss and I know, things are looking good in FL and are close in Ohio, but the Obama campaign has built this Kerry + IA, NM and CO firewall and its a damn good one. It gives them 273 electoral votes and puts McCain on the defensive - exactly where they need him to be. OH and FL are too iffy to bet on IMO - OH has some VERY conservative areas and FL has a wildly popular Republican Governor (and again, some VERY conservative areas, particularly in the panhandle). I guess another PA backup plan might be Obama winning Virginia plus any one of these states: North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana or Nevada - but man, theres a ton of intangibles there.

The question then becomes - Can McCain do it? Looking at the graph above, it certainly doesn't seem likely. Keep in mind though, Pollster.com doesn't weight polls for sample size or accuracy. FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 9.5 point lead with a 4.5 margin of error. Real Clear Politics gives Obama an 11.7 point lead. Why am I worried? Kerry only won this state by 2.5 points. Obama got his ass beat in the primary - not always a great predictor of a national race, but certainly indicative of a general lack of support. Comments like this: http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/17764334/detail.html don't help things. Obama has a persistent Appalachian problem: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/12/134251/930/338/514258 . Lastly, the McCain camp MUST have some internal polls that put the race closer they aren't that stupid. If they win this election this powerplay will go down as one of the most brilliant political moves of all time. If they lose PA, it'll just be another failed strategy to put in the Obit.

Heres some more food for thought, racial politics are particularly caustic in Philadelphia and if a Democratic candidate doesn't run up HUGE margins in Philly and the surrounding suburbs they're sure to lose the state. Ed Rendell won the Gubanatorial primary in 2002 (http://www.post-gazette.com/election/20020522govrace0522p1.asp) by winning only 10 out of 67 counties, the general election results were similar. Keep in mind Rendell was a wildly popular Mayor of Philly, Obama is a guy who said that people in PA were "Bitter" and got his ass handed to him by Hillary Clinton. Now Rendell and Mayor Nutter are good Democrats and will work hard to get Obama elected, their political futures depend on it, but people like Senator Bob Casey need to work the traditionally republican areas around Pittsburgh and Obama campaign needs to show middle of the state some love. Send Biden to Scranton, Often. Bill and Hilary Clinton should make weekly visits. If the polls close in PA two weeks from Tuesday and the networks declare it "too close to call" its time to grab the paper towels and get ready to pee your pants.

Beaver State Roundup:

Blake's Oregon Voters Guide

The time is here. A Note: I am only making endorsements on certain races. I have my reasons......


*National*

President: Barack Obama and Joe Biden
US Senator: Jeff Merkley (I'll do a larger post about this race before the weekend)

*State*

Secretary of State: Kate Brown
State Treasurer: Ben Westlund
Bureau of Labor and Industries Commissioner: Brad Avakian

Portland City Council: Amanda Fritz

*Ballot Measures*

Measure 54: Yes
Measure 55: Yes
Measure 56: Yes
Measure 57: *No Endorsement*
Measure 58: Heeeellllllll no!
Measure 59: No thanks!
Measure 60: Heeeeeellllll no!
Measure 61: No, sir
Measure 62: Naw
Measure 63: Nein
Measure 64: Non
Measure 65: *No Endorsement*

Well thats it for tonight. This Saturday I'll be rocking out to Ted Leo and Against Me at the Aladdin Theater. My favorite tunes from both bands will play us out:





Man, Ted should definitely be closing.

Hearts and Thoughts,

Blake

BREAKING: Just as I finished this Blog it was announced that Barack Obama was leaving the campaign trail to go back to Hawaii to his ailing Grandmother. Now we'll get an accurate representation of how far John McCain has fallen. I'm hoping he'll yank all negative ads and put the attacks on hold. If he does so his poll numbers will probably continue to increase as a result.

A couple of things

My Grandpas Obit:

Adelbert H. "Ade" Haffner
HAFFNER, Adelbert H. 'Ade' January 20, 1925 - October 9, 2008

Adlebert H. Haffner "Ade" was born in Hosmer, S.D., Jan. 20, 1924. His parents came west in 1927 and settled in Hillsboro. He graduated from Hillsboro High School in May of 1941. He served his country during World War II in the 18 Specials US Naval C.B. battalion in the South Pacific.

In 1946 he married Dorothy Schwartz and they had three children; son, Mark L. and daughters, Elisa Ann and Rose Marie.

During the '50s and early '60s he and his wife owned and operated Bill's Ice Cream store in Beaverton where he won several awards for premium ice cream.

Ade went to work as a letter carrier at the Beaverton Post Office in 1962 and retired from there in 1984. While at the Post Office he served three terms as president of the local union and served many years as shop steward.

He was a charter member of Oak Hills Christian Reformed Church and served terms as elder and deacon and was active in the choir for many years.

His passions in life besides God - family and country were classical music, opera, football, and chocolate.

He is survived by his wife, Dorothy; daughters, Elisa Ann Hickman and Rose Marie Newman; sister, Aurelia Wilken; and grandsons, Nathan Newman and Blake Hickman.

A memorial service will be held at 4 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008, in Oak Hills Church, 2800 NW 153rd in Beaverton.

Remembrances to: Oak Hills Church Benevolence Fund.

Arrangements Entrusted to: Springer And Son Aloha Funeral Home 503-356-1000

The Text of my Eulogy from Sunday:

Thanks Nathan, and thanks to all of you who took the time to join my family today.

My Grandpa was someone who was always prepared, very prepared. I’ll never forget when he told me in the hospital that he needed me to get his electric razor to him - surprising in and of itself - but then he told me that he needed the small brush that came with it because he cleaned his razor on Wednesday and Saturday. Now as you can probably tell, I don’t use my electric razor very often, and to be honest with you my reaction was something like “you’re supposed to clean those things?”. So needless to say, this impressed me.

Much the preparations he made were done to make things easier for his family and the things he did to plan this event are no different. In many ways Nathan and I had a very easy task. The fact that he took the effort to write his own obituary instead of using the format the Oregonian provides made it easy to touch on the areas of his life that he wanted examined.

His main passions in life: God, Family and Country are passions that I share, so I’ll be focusing on those this afternoon.

But first I feel like I should tell you a little about my life. I’m Ade’s youngest Grandson, my Mother is his eldest daughter Elisa. As many of you know my parents divorced in my early teens and during much of my life I haven’t had a healthy relationship with my father. Because of that my Grandpa was as much of a father figure to me as anyone. He did more than anyone – anyone to support my Mom and I. He gave us his time, his prayers and we lived with my Grandparents for several months when we had nowhere else to go. I’ve learned what the word “family” means by observing him. I asked my Grandma if there was anything that she wanted Nathan or I to mention today and she said two things “tell people he was a super husband, and a super father”. And I certainly will tell you that he was a super husband, and father and the best Grandfather.

I believe that you can measure the impact someone has had in your life by how much they’ve affected the way you see the world. I really knew that my wife Amber was the one for me because as we got to know each other I began to see certain things differently. Those of us who follow Christ can attest that once we found faith in him, we saw the world differently. There is nobody else on this earth who has affected how I see the world more significantly than my Grandfather. One of the things he has passed on to me is his faith.

The book of James tells us that “faith without deeds is dead” and I can tell you that by that metric my Grandpa’s faith was vibrant. One of the ways my Grandpa lived out his faith was by connecting with other people. I’d like to do an exercise – will anyone who has ever received a note – or a card – or a joke from my Grandfather stand as you are able? This is what my Grandpa was all about. This was a man that, even during difficult times, felt deeply loved by God – just look at the lyrics of the hymn he picked for us to sing today:

“Great is Thy faithfulness!
Morning by morning new mercies I see.
All I have needed Thy hand hath provided;
Great is Thy faithfulness, Lord, unto me!”

The key thing is – his relationship with God not only enriched his own life, it moved him to enrich the lives of others.

An example of this occurred when my Grandpa owned an ice cream store. Now I should add that when you’re a kid hearing that your grandpa owned an ice cream store before you were born is a little bit like your parents telling you on December 24th that Santa came by early but forgot all your gifts. It feels like a missed opportunity. But I still loved hearing Grandpa talk about that ice cream store. For those of you familiar with this area it was in Beaverton on the corner of Cedar Hills Blvd and Canyon – theres a firestone tires there now, I often imagine what it might have looked like there when I drive by – and I’ll come clean here, sometimes I use it as an excuse to go get ice cream! One of the stories he told about that time was about a group of nuns. They visited frequently and one of them ordered the same thing every time, a vanilla cone with sprinkles. One day she was missing when the other nuns came in and Grandpa asked about her. When they mentioned that she was sick, he gave them a vanilla cone with sprinkles for her, free of charge. He did this until the day she passed and was given an award by the local bishop.

This is just one example of my Grandpa’s charity. When I was a teenager and active in the youth group of this church many of my friends would go on mission trips. My friends would always mention how my Grandpa had sent them a check. He gave to this church faithfully as any deacon can attest. He gave to a laundry list of charitable organizations and causes: the paralyzed veterans of America, Toys for Tots, the Portland Rescue Mission, the ACLU.

And although this is a bit embarrassing, until recently, he was giving Nathan and I a monthly allowance of fifteen dollars. He faithfully put all of his change in a savings account and every Christmas each of us would get an envelope with the words “Christmas Club” on it. I can’t tell you how honored Amber felt the first Christmas she got one of those envelopes, it was one of the many things he did that made her feel like a part of our family before we were married.

He wasn’t perfect though. He could certainly be stubborn at times. And the funny thing about that is there isn’t really anyone else in our family like that. He had his shortcomings but he always taught us the right thing. One of those things Nathan mentioned/could have mentioned as it was one of the sayings in his wallet: Honor is a gift a man gives himself. An example of that happened during World War Two. I’m sure I’ll embarrass myself in front of any military historians here, but bear with me. He enlisted in the Navy and served as a Sea Bee in the Pacific Theater. Now the CB was known as one of the safer assignments in World War Two, so this may surprise any World War Two veterans here when I mention that my Grandpa was injured during the war. One of the ships he was traveling in came under fire, but survived the encounter. During combat though a bomb (it was not live at the time) fell on his foot and broke several of his toes. Sometime later he was offered and refused a purple heart for being wounded in combat. He told me he couldn’t accept it when some of his friends had received more dangerous assignments and a few of them had lost their lives.

My Grandfather loved this country and was proud of what his generation accomplished during that time. Now I know I risk sounding like some kind of ersatz Tom Brokaw but as we celebrate my Grandfather’s life I feel the need to celebrate the contribution of his generation as well. There was something quintessentially American about that generation. It reminds me of the very old practice of barn raising. My Grandpa once showed me the home he built in Hillsboro and I asked him how on earth he managed to do it by himself. “I didn’t” he said. “My brothers helped, Dorothy’s family helped, our Neighbors helped, the church helped”. His generation worked hard, but they did so not out of self interest - They worked hard so they could make a meaningful contribution to their family and their community. I wasn’t surprised that my Grandpa mentioned his tenure as the president of the local Postal Workers union in his obituary because he clearly valued people coming together to solve a common problem. I’m deeply honored to be speaking before Pastor Howard Spaan who recently celebrated 60 years of ministry. For someone like myself who’s interested in a career in public service, the lives of people like Howard and my Grandpa inspire and challenge me with the profound impact they had on their community.

It saddens me greatly though, to think about certain members of my Grandparents generation. My Mother and her friend Sandy Twigg, who many of you know, have a ministry where they go sing at a local nursing home during the summer. She’s told me stories that would break your heart about elderly people with terminal diseases who haven’t had a visit from their family in months – People just like Howard or my Grandpa – left to die alone – discarded. I’m glad that my Grandfather died surrounded by his family in a way that fit the kind of life he lived.

I feel the need to examine my Grandfather’s passing in the wider context of the events of this past year. After these past few weeks many of you, like me, are worried about the future – wondering about the kind of opportunities your children or grandchildren will have in the years ahead. My Grandpa was worried too. He read the paper everyday, watched the news, listened to the radio. Every Sunday Amber and I would go have dinner with my Grandparents and my Mom and my Grandpa and I would talk about current events. His concern was always for the most vulnerable members of our society, working families, wounded veterans, the homeless, single mothers – Concerns he impressed on me since I was old enough to understand these issues. He would quote the book of Matthew and tell me that what we do for the least of our brothers, we do for Christ.

I’ve had dozens of people ask me what they can do for me and my family this past week. You’ve given us food, flowers your cards and your prayers. The most meaningful thing you could do for my family would be this: let my Grandpa’s life inspire you the way it inspired all of us. Start today. Now I know how these events are. You’re looking around, you see someone you recognize who you haven’t talked in years. You think “Oh, I’d like to talk to them, but I just don’t know what I’d say”. Today, for my Grandpa, who brought us all together, go shake their hand, talk about how you knew my Grandpa and what he meant to you. When you get home, think about a friend you haven’t seen in years, write them a letter, not an e-mail or a text message, write it in your own handwriting. Think of a charity or cause you believe in and give generously. Listen to your partner, teach your children, respect your elders and love your neighbor. Before my Grandpa passed he wrote letters to all of us in the family, to be opened after his passing. The last two words he wrote in mine were “Carry On” – that was his challenge to me, and that’s my call to all of you today – Thank You.

Pic of the week

http://punditkitchen.com/2008/10/14/political-pictures-martin-luther-king-community-organizer/

Education

Educational Background:

Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)

vs.

McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899

Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism

Great Post

More great stuff from Matthew Yglesias.

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/10/four_years_ago.php

On a personal note

I don't usually do this but today my family got word from hospice that my Grandpa will be leaving us soon. If you could keep my family in your thoughts and prayers these next few weeks I would really appreciate it.

Obama 2 - McCain 0

Well the snap polls have deemed Obama the victor again tonight. I think tonight's format sucked, but Obama did seem more presidential whereas McCain looked like a cranky old man. Especially the "That One!" exchange. If Obama can tie or win next week I think this thing is over, barring some unforeseen event.

Another Film Review

Your Friends and Neighbors ***1/2 - *****

Interesting that the past two movies I've seen are about infidelity considering I picked them for two different reasons (Little Children to scope out Jackie Earle Hayley and Your Friends and Neighbors to see another Neil Labute Film). LaBute is known for writing about the dark side of human nature, I think hes adept at making characters that will completely disgust you but you'll find yourself relating to anyway. There were some pacing problems and it was hard for me to buy Ben Stiller in a serious role but there were some chilling moments in here (specifically the ending) that made the experience worthwhile. Recommended.

Movie Review

Little Children ***3/4/*****
Picked this up on a movie madness run this afternoon. Staring future Watchmen stars Patrick Wilson and Jackie Earle Hayley as well as Kate Winslet. Well worth the 2 plus hours. Definitely some akward directoral choices and some missed opportunities. The scene with the book club was certainly heavy handed. That being said the performances were stellar, Jackie Earle Hayley in particular and I was more than engaged by the end. Recommended.