Monday, September 8, 2008
Words been passed, this is our last chance
Things don't look good for the Obama campaign lately. This will be one of many posts on the internet today addressing the state of the race, and if you lean left you probably have the same sense of dread that I do. Its obvious that the polls are moving towards McCain. This may be a convention bounce but it may be something else, we don't know now, we may not know until its too late. All of us who thought Palin was a horrible pick are wrong - dead wrong in terms of the political ramifications. She has united and enthused a dying brand. Although I do think she'll have her share of mis-steps, maybe even a ton, maybe even enough to dissuade independent voters the Christian right won't care because they don't care whos right, they care about who shares their values.
Although I hoped Joe Biden would be at the top of the ticket this year I've invested a lot of emotional energy into Obama. His win in Iowa inspired me, his win in what was termed the "Potomac" primary (MD, DC and VA) moved me to tears his selection of Joe Biden thrilled me. I worked hard as a canvasser for his Oregon campaign. If he loses, I will feel a certain degree of responsibility.
Today I've been thinking about how other candidates might be doing had they prevailed. If Clinton had won we'd be hearing reporters question whether or not Black voters would desert the democratic party. The Clintons would probably be hitting McCain (and Pawlenty? who knows) hard, and more effectively. But Hilary would have a ton of work to do getting independents. How might Biden have played on the top of the ticket? I like him, but many surveys show that when he was picked as Obamas running mate he had low favorables. Richardson would have been interesting - Edwards would have been a disaster.
Is there any point to this? Probably not. But I'm definitely concerned about the Obama camp. Our best hope of winning was for Obama to stay ahead and simply nurse that lead through November. Now that hes down, I feel that only two options remain.
1. Win the debates. I don't mean to underestimate Palin, but I really do think that Biden will defeat her handily. My concern lies with Obama. Hes a great speaker, but was consistently criticized for underperformed in primary debates (I admit it, Hilary would have really shined here). Americans seem to mistake thoughtful answers for insincere ones. Obama will try to show both sides of every issue and McCain will be unequivocal and decisive. Obama needs to learn how to appear decisive.
2. Win the ad war. Americans say they hate negative ads, but they believe them anyway. The Obama campaign needs to form two narratives: a. McCain = Bush and b. Palin = Crook. They need to hit hard.
This is a good start:
There are some things keeping me optimistic. The Obama campaign's voter registration is one thing. The fact that the electoral college still looks decent is another. There is still a large block of undecided voters. I have a feeling most of them will go in the same direction down one of two paths. Obviously these voters are undecided for a reason - intrinsically they aren't enthused by either candidate. Do they go with the McCain = Bush narrative and vote against McCain as a referendum on Bush regardless of their concerns/lack of enthusiasm about Obama? Do they go with the Obama = dangerous meme and vote for McCain in the interest of safety regardless of their opinion about the Bush years? Do they stay home? Do they vote Nader/Barr/Write-in? We'll find out less than two months from now.
Whoops
From Huffpo
Gov. Sarah Palin made her first potentially major gaffe during her time on the national scene while discussing the developments of the perilous housing market this past weekend.
Speaking before voters in Colorado Springs, the Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had "gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers." The companies, as McClatchy reported, "aren't taxpayer funded but operate as private companies. The takeover may result in a taxpayer bailout during reorganization."
Gov. Sarah Palin made her first potentially major gaffe during her time on the national scene while discussing the developments of the perilous housing market this past weekend.
Speaking before voters in Colorado Springs, the Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had "gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers." The companies, as McClatchy reported, "aren't taxpayer funded but operate as private companies. The takeover may result in a taxpayer bailout during reorganization."
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Obama picks Ted Wheeler as his running mate
September 8th, 2008
Associated Press
After Joe Biden's mysterious disappearance in what has been called "a stunning gambit" a "Bold decision" and "fucking retarded" Barack Obama has selected Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler as his vice presidential nominee. In his remarks Wheeler said "I asked Barack Obama if he was sure about my chances of becoming Vice President and he said 'you bet', I then asked 'no seriously, are you sure' to which he replied 'yeah, quit asking so many questions already'".
"I wanted someone to go against Sarah Palin" the Land of Lincolner told reporters on Sunday "As many of you know Multnomah County is roughly the same population as Alaska only much cooler, they have a fucking aerial tram people - would you rather ride on a bridge to nowhere or a tram? I thought so". Ted Wheeler took office as Multnomah County Chair on January 1, 2007 after winning election in 2006 with 70% of the vote. He is both the Chief Executive Officer of Multnomah County government and the Chair of the Board of County Commissioners.
Senator John Kerry defended the decision on Sundays Meet The Press by saying "Multnomah County is just across the pacific ocean from China and Japan, logically Ted Wheeler has just as much foreign policy experience as Sarah Palin". Blogger Andrew Sullivan commented that Ted Wheeler might be the "key for Obama to tap into the disaffected Log Cabin Republican vote, oh wait, he didn't pick the Gay mayor of Portland? Bloody Hell".
When Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was asked to comment on McCain's decision to replace Sarah Palin with Joe Liberman he ran out of the room screaming "I told that asshole to pick Chuck Hagel - what did I do to deserve this shit?"
Sunday, August 31, 2008
On the American Voter
Heres something I don't do very often. Usually I'm pretty positive about the future of our county - but man there have been some things that have caused me either to worry or to feel like ripping my hair out.
A list of grievances:
A. I'm sitting here watching a Frank Luntz campaign focus group on CSPAN. The general consensus among voters are that both candidates "don't offer specifics" about social security. He then proceeds to play several clips of Obama and McCain talking specifically about social security making them all look like the idiots that they are. In this moment in time - IT HAS NEVER BEEN EASIER TO FIND OUT A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES STAND ON A SPECIFIC ISSUE. Both candidates (hell, even third party candidates) have exhaustive sections on nearly every issue important to most voters on their websites just a click away. It reminds me of Clinton voters who criticized Obama for not "offering specifics" when he had a several hundred page pdf file of his specific policies available for free download on his website. Did these people expect him to read all those pages at every campaign stop for seven hours straight? Have voters gotten so lazy that they expect to be force fed all the information they "need" to make a fucking decision?
B. While we're on that topic - Who the fuck are these undecided voters? On many important issues McCain and Obama offer a stark contrast. They've run very different campaigns, come from very different backgrounds and by all accounts would appoint very different individuals to serve in their administrations (and on the supreme court~!!!). Are these people so uninformed that they're unaware of these differences? Do they just like how it feels to say "I'm undecided" as if deciding between McCain or Obama will force them to forfeit some measure of intellectual integrity?
Now I have great respect for folks who say "none of the above" and support a third party candidate - at least they have ideals (I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos) and from the standpoint of a staunch libertarian a McCain/Obama matchup may not offer that much of a choice - but most "undecideds" aren't third party folks - they usually lean in a Liberal or Conservative direction. Are these people just too cowardly to take ownership of the consequences of their preferred candidate losing? After all "undecided" voters have no sense of responsibility to give their time or their money to affect the outcome of an election. I should know, you won't see me volunteering for Amanda Fritz or Charles Lewis - then again, they have just a LITTLE more in common than McCain and Obama do. That being said Republicans are now flaunting Sarah Palin's experience as the mayor of a town with 6,000 people so who knows, the next vice president may come from Portland City Council - maybe I need to go to some candidate forums.
C. I was listening to KPOJ today and heard a supposed progressive claim that Hurricane Gustav is proof that "God is a Liberal". First of all, this incident in the Gulf Coast may prove to be a great opportunity for Republicans - but secondly and most importantly people have died as a result of this storm. Families will lose their homes and an entire community will be at the mercy of the insurance industry. Has partisanship really caused liberals (surely this guy that called in isn't the only democrat thinking this) to become like the James Dobsons of this earth? It was only weeks ago that James Dobson encouraged focus on the family members to pray for rain during Obama's speech - remember how funny we all said that was? Guys?
In retrospect, this was probably a mistake. At the very least it was poorly written. Offering their one sentence response to Sarah Palin voters just offered up "Refreshing", "Good looking" and "Fighter". I need to avoid CSPAN after 10 PM or so.
A list of grievances:
A. I'm sitting here watching a Frank Luntz campaign focus group on CSPAN. The general consensus among voters are that both candidates "don't offer specifics" about social security. He then proceeds to play several clips of Obama and McCain talking specifically about social security making them all look like the idiots that they are. In this moment in time - IT HAS NEVER BEEN EASIER TO FIND OUT A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES STAND ON A SPECIFIC ISSUE. Both candidates (hell, even third party candidates) have exhaustive sections on nearly every issue important to most voters on their websites just a click away. It reminds me of Clinton voters who criticized Obama for not "offering specifics" when he had a several hundred page pdf file of his specific policies available for free download on his website. Did these people expect him to read all those pages at every campaign stop for seven hours straight? Have voters gotten so lazy that they expect to be force fed all the information they "need" to make a fucking decision?
B. While we're on that topic - Who the fuck are these undecided voters? On many important issues McCain and Obama offer a stark contrast. They've run very different campaigns, come from very different backgrounds and by all accounts would appoint very different individuals to serve in their administrations (and on the supreme court~!!!). Are these people so uninformed that they're unaware of these differences? Do they just like how it feels to say "I'm undecided" as if deciding between McCain or Obama will force them to forfeit some measure of intellectual integrity?
Now I have great respect for folks who say "none of the above" and support a third party candidate - at least they have ideals (I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos) and from the standpoint of a staunch libertarian a McCain/Obama matchup may not offer that much of a choice - but most "undecideds" aren't third party folks - they usually lean in a Liberal or Conservative direction. Are these people just too cowardly to take ownership of the consequences of their preferred candidate losing? After all "undecided" voters have no sense of responsibility to give their time or their money to affect the outcome of an election. I should know, you won't see me volunteering for Amanda Fritz or Charles Lewis - then again, they have just a LITTLE more in common than McCain and Obama do. That being said Republicans are now flaunting Sarah Palin's experience as the mayor of a town with 6,000 people so who knows, the next vice president may come from Portland City Council - maybe I need to go to some candidate forums.
C. I was listening to KPOJ today and heard a supposed progressive claim that Hurricane Gustav is proof that "God is a Liberal". First of all, this incident in the Gulf Coast may prove to be a great opportunity for Republicans - but secondly and most importantly people have died as a result of this storm. Families will lose their homes and an entire community will be at the mercy of the insurance industry. Has partisanship really caused liberals (surely this guy that called in isn't the only democrat thinking this) to become like the James Dobsons of this earth? It was only weeks ago that James Dobson encouraged focus on the family members to pray for rain during Obama's speech - remember how funny we all said that was? Guys?
In retrospect, this was probably a mistake. At the very least it was poorly written. Offering their one sentence response to Sarah Palin voters just offered up "Refreshing", "Good looking" and "Fighter". I need to avoid CSPAN after 10 PM or so.
Friday, August 29, 2008
On Sarah Palin
Well done John. What a swerve. Lets get to it:
The good: She will obviously pick off pissed of Clinton supporters - especially non-college baby boomer women - read people who are stupid enough to vote for her in the name of "feminism" even though shes anti-choice. Yet another reason why she should have dropped out earlier. She neutralizes Obama's gains in Alaska (although really, its a small enough state, picking Pawlenty who would have given McCain MN would have been much better strategically). Choosing someone so new to the national scene does reinforce the McCain brand as a Maverick one. She will resonate with the evangelical community, not as much as Pawlenty, but more than Lieberman or Ridge.
The bad: For one, Biden will wipe the floor with her. Also, picking the Governor of the 47th largest state in the union, who is only 1.5 years into her tern and who has ZERO foreign policy cred kinda undermines your credibility when you attack Obama. Shes also an Alaska republican, a brand thats loosing steam in the state. It won't be too hard to tie her to Ted Stevens and the like.
The ugly: http://www.adn.com/monegan/story/478090.html
The good: She will obviously pick off pissed of Clinton supporters - especially non-college baby boomer women - read people who are stupid enough to vote for her in the name of "feminism" even though shes anti-choice. Yet another reason why she should have dropped out earlier. She neutralizes Obama's gains in Alaska (although really, its a small enough state, picking Pawlenty who would have given McCain MN would have been much better strategically). Choosing someone so new to the national scene does reinforce the McCain brand as a Maverick one. She will resonate with the evangelical community, not as much as Pawlenty, but more than Lieberman or Ridge.
The bad: For one, Biden will wipe the floor with her. Also, picking the Governor of the 47th largest state in the union, who is only 1.5 years into her tern and who has ZERO foreign policy cred kinda undermines your credibility when you attack Obama. Shes also an Alaska republican, a brand thats loosing steam in the state. It won't be too hard to tie her to Ted Stevens and the like.
The ugly: http://www.adn.com/monegan/story/478090.html
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Biden we can believe in
So yeah, I'm sure y'all are wondering how I feel about Obama picking Biden. Its definitely indicative of the O campaign getting bigger that the news was leaked - probably by ex-Clintonites I assume.
Joe Biden has been one of my favorite pols for a long time now. I feel the guy has a great life story, an engaging speaking style and a decent record in his 30 plus years in the senate. Hes a strong progressive, but has shown some independence on certain issues. As I mentioned in my last post, the guy is gaffe-prone. But a gaffe prone president managed to win in 2004 if I recall correctly, so its certainly not a disqualifier. His legislative achievements - VAWA and VCC/LEA among them are part of what made him stand above the 3 democratic front runners in my mind. His crusade against Robert Bork has certainly endeared him to many progressives, although many folks like myself have always been concerned about his actions regarding the death penalty.
Biden certainly brings a sense of experience to the ticket, will be a great campaigner and will smoke whoever McCain picks in the VP debate - especially Mitt Romney. Kudos to Biden for accepting the Job and kudos to Obama for not caving in to whining Clinton supporters.
Joe Biden has been one of my favorite pols for a long time now. I feel the guy has a great life story, an engaging speaking style and a decent record in his 30 plus years in the senate. Hes a strong progressive, but has shown some independence on certain issues. As I mentioned in my last post, the guy is gaffe-prone. But a gaffe prone president managed to win in 2004 if I recall correctly, so its certainly not a disqualifier. His legislative achievements - VAWA and VCC/LEA among them are part of what made him stand above the 3 democratic front runners in my mind. His crusade against Robert Bork has certainly endeared him to many progressives, although many folks like myself have always been concerned about his actions regarding the death penalty.
Biden certainly brings a sense of experience to the ticket, will be a great campaigner and will smoke whoever McCain picks in the VP debate - especially Mitt Romney. Kudos to Biden for accepting the Job and kudos to Obama for not caving in to whining Clinton supporters.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Biden as Veep?
I call swerve. I think a different pick will be announced before Friday. I think Biden brings certain strengths (good debater/campaigner, foreign policy cred etc.) and weaknesses (gaffe-prone, who gives a shit about DE etc,) just like everyone else. I happen to like the guy personally so I would enjoy the pick, I just think the O campaign is trying to surprise us.
My Rank of the top 3 according to the press (although I will not be surprised if O's pick is none of the following)
1 Biden
2 Kaine (Pro: VA will be important, Governors are great at conveying a message of change, Con: Weak stance on abortion will piss off pro-choice groups)
3 Bayh (Pro: Mild white dude with good looking family, may assuage some Hilary supporters Con: Former Hilary supporter, Mild stance on other progressive issues)
For some reason Richardson has sounded pretty good to me as of late. The guy was a diplomat, will ensure Latino turnout, helps us grab New Mexico - then again like every other pick he has some weaknesses like his unusual speaking style, and having a Black/Latino ticket may scare the crap out of certain (Read: racist) voters. Who knows. I'm sure as hell excited though.
My Rank of the top 3 according to the press (although I will not be surprised if O's pick is none of the following)
1 Biden
2 Kaine (Pro: VA will be important, Governors are great at conveying a message of change, Con: Weak stance on abortion will piss off pro-choice groups)
3 Bayh (Pro: Mild white dude with good looking family, may assuage some Hilary supporters Con: Former Hilary supporter, Mild stance on other progressive issues)
For some reason Richardson has sounded pretty good to me as of late. The guy was a diplomat, will ensure Latino turnout, helps us grab New Mexico - then again like every other pick he has some weaknesses like his unusual speaking style, and having a Black/Latino ticket may scare the crap out of certain (Read: racist) voters. Who knows. I'm sure as hell excited though.
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