Electoral College Tie

Totally possible:



Thats just one scenario, albeit the most likely one in my opinion. What happens in this kind of situation? Michael Crowley fills us in:

"It goes to the House. But it's not one member, one vote. Instead, each state's delegation gets one vote, which is first determined by an internal vote within that state's delegation. Tied delegation votes nullify that state's vote. And it's the incoming House that votes--the people elected this November, that is--not the sitting House. God help us if it comes to that."

Believe it or not theres actually enough democratic delegations in red states that if delegations broke along party lines, Barack Obama would win. Now thats not accounting for the possibility of this tie happening with McCain winning the popular vote - which would certainly put pressure on representatives to elect McCain, especially those in red states.

More from Brian Beutler:

"Additionally, there's the small matter that, 204 years after the 12th amendment was ratified, we have 50 state and 50 state delegations--a dreaded even number that I suppose leaves open the possibility that the House vote could also end in a tie. I'm not sure at all what happens then, but if the House hasn't elected a President by March 4, then the vice-president (chosen by the Senate in a majority vote) becomes President. Obviously, Democrats would fare better in such circumstances."

If you think 2000 was dramatic (and it was) just imagine this scenario for a moment. We'll have to wait and see I guess.

A rechristening

Thats right, I'm relaunching this piece. Heres what you should know:

The title: My favorite song for 4 years straight, somewhat of a thesis for my life (the sentiment of the song that is). Check it out here:

Weekly features: At least every week I'll give my thoughts on the presidential election and several Oregon races from now until November 4th. Also notice the fun poll on the righthand corner for y'all to participate in.

Reviews: From now on I'll be reviewing each album I purchase, each film I watch and each concert I go to using a five star rating system with a paragraph summary.

Random Thoughts: Expect these to continue.

This is quite the gauntlet I've laid down for myself - but I know it'll be worth it. Thanks for taking the trip with me -
Blake

This place is on the way to my Grandparents

Chattel (excerpt) from Food Fight! Grocery on Vimeo.

Blow our minds Plouffe-dawg

Positive Stuff

Hey, I thought I'd inject some positivity up in this piece.

Positive thing #1: Obama Rising

McCain's bounce is all but over. Obama is up as of today in Gallup, down by only 1 in Rass and leading in several other daily trackers as well. State by state polls coming out this week will probably favor mccain partly because of a lapse, but take a look at where John Kerry was: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep16.html now take a look at where Obama is: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Holy cow do we have less work to do. Kerry was barely holding IL! All Obama has to do is hold all the states Kerry did and pick up states like IA, VA, CO and NM where hes polling strongly and he wins. McCain doesn't really have many options when it comes to picking off a Kerry state (assuming PA and MI hold where they are) and will now be on defense in states like VA, NM and CO. Theres also the outside chance of picking up OH or FL, and if Obama does that, McCain is toast.

Lets not forget Obamas ground game. Pretty massive voter registration going on and unlike 2004 the Obama campaign has registered these folks and will have the resources in place to get them to the polls.

Obviously in many ways this thing is still a coin toss. Estimates have undecideds as high as 10%. Nobody knows which way those folks will break, and anybody that pretends to know is full of it. There are other unknown factors at play as well. What effect will Obama's race have on the end result? African American turnout may be unprecedented but there also may be some hesitance among whites to vote for an African American. Then again, there may be some undecided white voters who will vote for Obama just to make history. We just don't know. I am more hopeful now than I was last week though.

#2 Ted Leo has a new EP out
Really, he does. It Rocks. All proceeds go to charity. Check it out http://www.touchandgorecords.com/bands/album.php?id=478

#3 Fall is the best season to live in Portland

#4 Lisa Hannigans new record kicks ass

#5 September will be my last concert-less month of the year - and its halfway over.

Quotes to Remember

“The fundamental business of the country, that is the production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.”

Herbert Hoover October 25, 1929

Something to keep in mind

The New York Times
Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll
Published: July 26, 1988

LEAD: In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

Nominees usually enjoy a lift in the polls after the nomination. Ed Slaughter, project director at Gallup, pointed out that in 1984, Walter Mondale's standing rose 12 points after the Democratic convention that year. But the improved standing dissipated within ten days, Mr. Slaughter said.

Another poll, conducted in Texas, also showed Mr. Dukakis gaining ground from the convention. The survey of 504 registered voters likely to cast ballots, conducted on Friday and Saturday by Peter Hart, a Democratic poll taker, showed Mr. Dukakis leading Mr. Bush by 50 percent to 40 percent. A survey of that size has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. A Hart survey of 265 such voters for The Chicago Tribune from July 5 to 9 had shown the race even in Texas - 46 percent for Mr. Dukakis, 46 percent for Mr. Bush, with a sampling error of plus or minus six percentage points. DON'T BITE!!!